How PredictIt works, from the share price to who runs it
PredictIt sells shares in yes or no questions about politics, priced from 1 to 99 cents, and each winning share pays $1. PredictIt runs under no-action relief from the CFTC, not as a registered exchange, and its own terms say it is not regulated by the CFTC. Here is the mechanism, the limits and the fees, each from PredictIt's own pages or the CFTC.
How a share works
The price of a share, between 1 and 99 cents, corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
Markets are grouped as Elections, President, Congress, State/Local, World, Weekly, and the home page listed 201 markets when we read it. The site is open around the clock except a daily maintenance window from 4 a.m. to 5 a.m. ET. See every open PredictIt market.
How much you can put in
The limit is $3,500 per person per contract, raised from $850 in July 2025, and there is no longer a cap on how many traders a contract can have.
Pursuant to this letter, there is a limit on investment by any single participant in any particular contract of $3,500.
The limit counts what you spent buying shares, not what they are worth later:
The $3,500 limit applies to your investment in a contract, the funds you spend to acquire your shares. Subsequent changes in the market value of your shares do not change this amount.
Consequently, the Division is amending CFTC Letter 14-130 to eliminate the limit of 5,000 traders in any one contract.
What it costs
PredictIt takes 10% of the profit when you sell a share for more than you paid, and nothing on a sale at the same or a lower price.
Any time you sell shares for a higher price than you paid, we charge a fee of 10 percent of your profit. There is no fee if you sell your shares at the same price that you paid or at a lower price.
Since 23 September 2026, standard withdrawals are free. A 5% fee remains on withdrawals from inactive accounts, and card deposits cost 3% after the first:
PredictIt does not charge a fee to process standard withdrawals from active accounts.
Deposits made by credit card carry a 3 percent processing fee. Deposits by bank transfer and all other methods are free, and your first deposit is fee-free up to $1,000.
The full breakdown is on PredictIt fees.
Who runs it, and under what rules
PredictIt runs under no-action relief from the CFTC, not as a registered exchange, and its own terms say it is not regulated by the CFTC.
PredictIt operates under no-action relief from the Division of Market Oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
PredictIt is a project of Prediction Market Research Consortium, a not-for-profit organization, for educational purposes. The site is supported by Aristotle International, Inc., a U.S. provider of data processing and verification services.
The original relief went to Victoria University of Wellington; CFTC Letter 25-20 let it hand the market over:
Finally, the Division understands that Victoria University will cease operating any US-based prediction market upon this transfer to PRMC.
The relief covers political questions only:
the Division makes clear that the Market is restricted to political events, such as contracts related to the outcomes of elections and other significant political questions not involving war, terrorism, or assassination.
Who can trade
You must be 18 or older and a US person: a US citizen living anywhere, or a resident alien.
You agree that you are a U.S. Person (a U.S. Citizen living anywhere in the world or a Resident Alien).
You must have a minimum $10 account balance before you can start trading. Withdrawals are subject to a 30-day holding period after your initial deposit.
Opening an account, verification and withdrawals are on PredictIt account and login.