What a Fed decision contract actually resolves on
A Kalshi Fed contract resolves on one number: the upper bound of the target federal funds range, as the Federal Reserve publishes it on its own website. Not the dot plot, not the press conference, and not any revision made after the market expires.
The exact rule
Every Fed market states its rule in one sentence. For the October 2026 meeting it reads:
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.25% following the Federal Reserve's Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
The contract terms define the number behind it:
Underlying: The Underlying for this Contract is the upper bound of the target federal funds range published by the official website of the Federal Reserve. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
When it settles
The Fed releases its statement on the last day of the meeting, and the market expires on a fixed clock after it:
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Oct 28, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
If the Fed publishes nothing in that window, the terms decide it for you:
If no data is available on the Expiration Date at the Expiration Time, the Contract resolves to No.
Prices at 11:38 UTC on 11 October 2026
Kalshi asks one question per strike (Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?); the strikes still in doubt were:
| Kalshi contract | Last price |
|---|---|
| Above 4.00% | 17¢ |
Polymarket prices the move itself (Fed Decision in October?):
| Polymarket outcome | Price |
|---|---|
| No change | 83.5¢ |
| 25 bps increase | 15.5¢ |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.5¢ |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.4¢ |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.2¢ |
Prices are the last traded price on Kalshi's public market API and the displayed price on Polymarket's Gamma API, both read at 11:38 UTC on 11 October 2026. They move all day; open the market on the venue for the price now.
Polymarket asks a different question
Polymarket's October market is not an above or below threshold. It is a bracket market on how many basis points the upper bound moves. Its own description starts:
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
Polymarket resolves its prediction markets through the UMA Optimistic Oracle, where a proposed answer can be disputed. Kalshi's answer is whatever the Fed's own table shows at expiry.
