Every 2026 Senate race, priced on Kalshi and Polymarket
Between them, Kalshi and Polymarket list 35 of the 2026 Senate races; the table below shows each race's favourite and its price on both venues at 11:38 UTC on 11 October 2026. The closest races at 11:38 UTC on 11 October 2026 were Iowa (Ashley Hinson at 58.5¢), Maine (Troy Jackson at 58.5¢), Ohio (Sherrod Brown at 61.5¢), Kansas (Roger Marshall at 62.5¢).
All 35 races
Between them, Kalshi and Polymarket list 35 of the 2026 Senate races; the table below shows each race's favourite and its price on both venues at 11:38 UTC on 11 October 2026.
| State | Favourite | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Barry Moore (R) | 98.2¢ | 97¢ |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola | 73¢ (Democratic party) | 72.5¢ |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton (R) | 93.8¢ | 94.4¢ |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper (D) | 99.6¢ | 98¢ |
| Delaware | Democrat | 98.5¢ | 98.6¢ |
| Florida | Ashley Moody (R) | 90.7¢ | 90.5¢ |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff (D) | 94.8¢ | 96.2¢ |
| Idaho | Jim Risch (R) | 93.5¢ | 94.3¢ |
| Illinois | Juliana Stratton (D) | 97.3¢ | 97.9¢ |
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) | 57¢ | 58.5¢ |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall (R) | 63¢ | 62.5¢ |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr (R) | 96.2¢ | 96.8¢ |
| Louisiana | Julia Letlow (R) | not listed | 92.5¢ |
| Maine | Troy Jackson (D) | 57¢ | 58.5¢ |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey (D) | 98¢ | 98.5¢ |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 67¢ | 68.5¢ |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan (D) | 86¢ | 87.5¢ |
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | 91.6¢ | 93.5¢ |
| Montana | Kurt Alme (R) | 93.8¢ | 91.5¢ |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) | 74¢ | 71.5¢ |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas (D) | 90¢ | 89.5¢ |
| New Jersey | Cory Booker (D) | 98.7¢ | 97.9¢ |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján (D) | 96.4¢ | 97.4¢ |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper (D) | 95¢ | 96¢ |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) | 59¢ | 61.5¢ |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Hern (R) | 96.5¢ | 97¢ |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley (D) | 97.7¢ | 98.1¢ |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed (D) | 98.7¢ | 97.8¢ |
| South Carolina | Darline Graham Nordone (R) | 86¢ | 84.5¢ |
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds (R) | 94.6¢ | 93.1¢ |
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty (R) | 92.9¢ | 93.4¢ |
| Texas | James Talarico (D) | 62¢ | 63.5¢ |
| Virginia | Mark Warner (D) | 97.9¢ | 98.2¢ |
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | 97.2¢ | 98.4¢ |
| Wyoming | Harriet Hageman (R) | 97.5¢ | 98.3¢ |
A price is the market's chance in cents: 65¢ reads as about 65%. Where Kalshi names a race by party or by another candidate, its own leader is shown in brackets. 33 of the 35 races are listed on both venues.
The close races
The closest races at 11:38 UTC on 11 October 2026 were Iowa (Ashley Hinson at 58.5¢), Maine (Troy Jackson at 58.5¢), Ohio (Sherrod Brown at 61.5¢), Kansas (Roger Marshall at 62.5¢).
In Texas, James Talarico led at 62¢ on Kalshi and 63.5¢ on Polymarket. See the 2026 midterms for control of the House and Senate.
What each market settles on
Kalshi settles on who is sworn in for the term; Polymarket names its own resolution source in each market’s rules, quoted below.
Kalshi, Texas:
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket, Texas:
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Can you trade them
Whether you can trade depends on the venue and your state, and several states have acted against these venues. Check your state first, then what each venue charges.
About these prices
Prices are the last traded price on Kalshi's public market API and the displayed price on Polymarket's Gamma API, both read at 11:38 UTC on 11 October 2026. They move all day; open the market on the venue for the price now.
