What the markets say about a US recession this year
Kalshi and Polymarket both price a US recession in 2026, and they do not use the same rule to decide one. At 11:38 UTC on 11 October 2026, Kalshi priced Yes at 3¢ and Polymarket priced Yes at 6.5¢.
Recession this year?: prices at 11:38 UTC
Kalshi: Recession this year?, closes 31 Jan 2027. Polymarket: US recession by end of 2026?, closes 31 Dec 2026.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3¢ | 6.5¢ | 3.5 pts |
How each venue resolves it
Kalshi's rule:
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket's market description:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A price on one venue is a price on its own rule. Where the wording differs, a gap between the two prices can be the rule, not a mistake.
What a trade costs
Both venues charge a fee that is largest near 50¢ and shrinks toward 1¢ and 99¢. The exact rates, by category, are on our Kalshi fees and Polymarket fees pages, and whether you can trade at all depends on your state.
About these prices
Prices are the last traded price on Kalshi's public market API and the displayed price on Polymarket's Gamma API, both read at 11:38 UTC on 11 October 2026. They move all day; open the market on the venue for the price now.
